The American think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has analyzed the growing threats of annexation and economic pressure from the U.S., concluding that “Trump’s threats to absorb Canada into the United States should not be dismissed as mere rhetoric.”
Five years ago, during his first presidency, Donald Trump redefined U.S.-Canada relations through the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which he proudly called “the best trade deal ever negotiated.” Now, in his second term, he appears to have set his sights on an even more ambitious goal: the full annexation of Canada.
In a startling statement to reporters last Thursday, Trump declared: “Canada only makes sense as an American state.” He has repeatedly pushed for the northern nation to become the 51st state of the Union. This week’s imposition of harsh tariffs on Canadian goods, combined with open discussions of annexation, has not only damaged bilateral relations but also sparked a surge in Canadian patriotism, leading to aggressive countermeasures from Ottawa.
The Canadian government has filed a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Canada argues these punitive measures – including 25% tariffs on manufactured goods and 10% on energy products – violate multiple provisions of the 1994 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the WTO’s Trade Facilitation Agreement.
The CFR report emphasizes several critical concerns: First, Trump’s annexation threats represent a serious escalation that could destabilize North America. Second, removing Canada from the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance (which includes the U.S., UK, Australia and New Zealand) would significantly weaken Western security networks. Third, altering Canada’s role in NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) could create dangerous gaps in continental defense.
These unprecedented actions appear designed to punish Canada for what Trump describes as “unfair trade practices” and “failure to stop illegal immigration and fentanyl smuggling.” Observers note this fits a pattern of Trump’s fixation on territorial acquisition, whether regarding Canada, Greenland, or even Gaza.
The dairy industry remains another flashpoint in tensions. Canada’s supply management system imposes tariffs exceeding 200% on dairy imports, creating what U.S. officials call an unfair monopoly for Canadian farmers while restricting American dairy exports to just 3.6% of the Canadian market.
Remarkably, Trump’s aggressive posture has already reshaped Canadian politics in less than two months. A renewed Canadian nationalism is visible in the rising popularity of the Liberal Party under Mark Carney and growing support for “Buy Canadian” campaigns. Recent polls show 42% of Canadians now actively avoid purchasing American products when possible.
However, the economic reality between the two nations creates complex interdependencies:
– Canada supplies 52% of all U.S. crude oil imports
– Provinces like Ontario and Quebec provide essential electricity to northern U.S. states
– Canada remains the primary source for U.S. nickel, zinc and potash imports
The military partnership runs even deeper. U.S. and Canadian forces work closely to counter threats from China, Russia and North Korea. The Alert Signals Intelligence Station in Nunavut – the world’s northernmost permanent settlement – plays a crucial role in gathering military intelligence for both nations.
This raises the fundamental question: Does Canada possess enough economic and political leverage to resist American pressure? While nationalist sentiment is rising, the deeply integrated nature of the two economies and defense systems makes any serious confrontation potentially damaging for both sides. The coming months may test whether Canada can maintain its sovereignty against an administration seemingly determined to redraw the map of North America.